若看西方主流媒体，便会得出这样的结论：中国已成为经济超级大国，正一心以大规模军备竞赛来展示自己的军事实力。当选主席习近平刚刚接任前任主席胡锦涛，成为共产党总书记兼中央军委主席，进而取得了对党和军队的全面领导。
英国广播公司(BBC)近期发表了一篇题为《中国扩展军事力量》的文章，正体现了西方媒体报道中国军事计划的典型方式。分析指出：“中国第一艘航母将在今年晚些时候开始试航。去年年底，北京新型“隐形”战斗机样机的照片首次被曝光。此外，美国军事专家认为，中国已开始部署世界上第一种能够击中海上移动舰船的远程弹道导弹。”【1】
在日本，极富政治野心的右翼民族主义政客东京都知事石原慎太郎和大阪府知事桥下彻，以宣扬反华言论正在赢得公众的支持，声称日本必须发展本国实力来对抗中国军事优势。今年五月，权威报纸《纽约时报》刊登了一篇耸人听闻的报道，造成了对中国宣布军费开支要保持两位数增长的误解。事实上，文章只是提到了中国将在去年的军费预算基础上增加11%，这一数字甚至远远低于通货膨胀率。
然而，当我们仔细观察奥巴马总统宣布“重返亚太战略”后美国军队在亚洲地区的军事行动时，便可清楚地看到，这并非是中国主动采取攻势。中国只是针对美国做出回应，以消除将来对中国主权构成真正威胁的隐患。
事实很简单，美国在任总统奥巴马在总统大选电视辩论中将中国列为“敌对国”，清楚地表明了美国军事重心的转变。从美国近期在亚洲的导弹防御部署便可知其目标旨在中国，别无其他。美国以中国为轴心的本质显而易见。
根据官方数据，中国军费约为900亿美元，仅占美国军费开支的10%。如果将国防相关的武器进口和其他相关开支计算在内，则军费大概在一年1110亿美元左右。即使中国当局在这些敏感领域未公布其完备数据，其与美国相比仍明显微不足道，更何况中国的军事技术起步基础还远远落后于美国。
美国国防预算是目前世界上最多的，远远高于其他国家，因此完全不会受到任何军事威胁。19世纪，英国皇家海军按照其两大潜在劲敌的舰队规模，建造了自己的舰队;如今，美国的国防预算战略家宣布，一旦美国所建的海军不敌中国海军和俄罗斯海军总和的五倍，那么对美国来说，便意味着世界末日的到来。【2】
我们不妨将中国在上合组织中最强盟国俄罗斯的军费支出也计算进来，得到的年度军费支出总额也才不过1420亿美元。世界军费支出最多的前十个国家，除美国第一，中国第二外，还包括英国、法国、日本、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、德国、印度以及巴西。美国2011年的军事支出总额竟达到了全球171个国家和地区支出总和的46%，几乎占据了全世界军费支出的一半。【3】
显然，尽管美国在全世界大谈维和使命，推动“民主”进程，但美国追求的却是“全方位主导”地位，即全面控制全球陆、海、空、太空、外太空及现在的赛博空间。【4】无疑，美国已决定以自己的军事实力来确保其在全球的霸权地位。没有其他可能的解释了。
且不说今日中国充满活力的经济和维护国家利益的决心，仅仅因为中国的存在就足以使她成为五角大楼的新“假想敌”，取代了911事件后由布什-切尼政府为追求全球霸权做辩护而树立的“假想敌”——伊斯兰。
在忽略美国在东亚的利益近20年后，奥巴马政府于2011年宣布，美国将其外交政策的“战略轴心”，在军事上和政治上转向亚太地区，尤其是东南亚地区，即中国。
“奥巴马主义”与亚洲弹道导弹防御系统
到目前为止，“中国轴心”战略初期的关键在于建立包围中国的大规模反导防御圈，从而消除中国发动核攻击的潜在可能。在伊拉克和阿富汗的军事行动失败后，奥巴马政府于2011年底明确公开定义了新的军事威胁。在访问远东期间，美国总统在澳大利亚将奥巴马主义公诸于众。【5】
以下是奥巴马在澳大利亚演讲的相关节选：
“亚洲拥有世界上绝大多数的有核国家和约全球一半的人口，这很大程度上决定了未来的世界是一个冲突的世纪还是相互协作的世纪……因此，作为总统，我审慎地做出了战略决策——……美国在塑造亚太地区上将发挥更加重要和长期的作用……我已指示我的国家安全团队优先考虑在亚太地区建立我们的军事存在……我们将保持我们在该地区特有的威慑力，确保消除对和平构成的威胁……美国是太平洋国家，这意味着我们在这里必须加强部署。事实上，我们已经在整个亚太地区着手现代化美国的防卫。……我们可以预见美国未来在澳大利亚的防卫态势……我相信我们可以应对我们共同的挑战，如武器扩散和包括中国南海合作问题在内的海事安全问题。【6】
2012年8月24日，纽约《华尔街日报》报道称，奥巴马政府将拓宽其在亚太地区的导弹防御屏障(BMD)，以此作为最新宣布的“中国轴心”政策的一部分。【7】
美国官方对其在亚洲舞台上部署弹道导弹防御系统给出的理由是，保护日韩及美国在亚洲地区的其他盟国不受朝鲜核导弹的攻击。这种说法根本经不起推敲。
事实上，大量报道显示，美国已决定利用日韩澳建立大型弹道导弹防御网，其真正目标并非朝鲜，而是亚洲地区唯一一个具有远程发射能力的潜在核威胁国家——中国。全面控制中国的未来发展趋势是美国新军事战略必要的一部分。
此外，从日本政府适时挑起中日钓鱼岛争端一事，同样可以看出美国弹道导弹防御系统的进攻意图。钓鱼岛位于中国东海，据信该地区拥有庞大的天然气储备。【8】
日本导弹防御的关键
2012年9月，美国防部长莱昂•帕内塔(Leon Panetta)宣布，美日双方就在日本领土部署另一先进的大型导弹防御雷达达成重大协议。【9】帕内塔在声明中宣称：“美国此举的目的在于加强日本的防御能力，同时加强美国军队的前沿部署，进而有效保护美国本土不会受到来自朝鲜弹道导弹的威胁。”【10】我们只要看一看地图上帕内塔所说的部署核武器的位置，便可知道，中国导弹发射场就在朝鲜边境，刚好在美日新弹道导弹防御系统的射程范围之内。
美国在很久以前就已决定要在日本部署先进的弹道导弹防御系统，作为其全球军事霸权战略的必要组成部分。2003年12月19日，日本政府发布内阁决定——《引进弹道导弹防御系统及其他措施》，标志着日本正式决定与美国合作建立弹道导弹防御系统。自此，建立健全的导弹防御系统便成为了日本国家安全的重中之重。
根据日本现任政府对日本宪法第九条的解读，日本不得实施集体自卫权，利用导弹防御能力对第三方国家提供防卫——即便是像美国这样的盟国也是明文禁止的。极有可能在今年12月16日的众议院选举中当选总理的自民党领导人安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)，强烈支持建立弹道导弹防御系统和修改宪法第九条。这就意味着，日本将发生重大转变，摆出更为好斗的反华军事姿态。【11】
据美国军事新闻报道，日本弹道导弹防御新计划最重要的特征在于配备了由美国雷神公司研发的强大的预警雷达，即X波段雷达(X-band)。该雷达为“大型相控阵火控传感器，以精密鉴别且支持拦截机为特色”，它旨在对抗“流氓国家”的威胁，并将部署在日本南部某岛屿。【12】
日本防卫大臣森本•敏证实，日本与美国就导弹防御问题，包括如何部署美国的X波段雷达系统进行过多次讨论。【13】自2006年以来，日本已在其北部辖区青森县部署了一部X波段雷达。此举遭到了青森县居民的强烈反对，因为雷达的出现将使当地居民成为潜在敌人发动进攻的目标。【14】
亚洲地区弹道导弹防御体系
美国优先在亚洲地区部署弹道导弹防御系统的对象不仅包括日本，其还在帮助印度完善印度的新导弹防御系统。印度希望在美国的帮助下建立多层导弹防御网，名义上是为防御巴基斯坦，而私底下却是针对中国。今年早些时候，印度试验发射了烈火V(Agni-V)中程弹道导弹，其国内新闻公开报道称，该导弹的最重要特征在于能够打击中国的任何地方。【15】
华盛顿国会研究服务部(WCRS)导弹防御专家斯蒂芬•希尔德雷思(Steven Hildreth)表示，美国正在为建立亚洲地区范围内的导弹防御系统奠定基础，该防御系统为美国与亚洲国家，尤其是与日本、韩国和澳大利亚共同建立的弹道导弹防御系统。希尔德雷思还指出，此举的假定目标在于遏制朝鲜的导弹威胁，“可实际情况是我们还从长远角度关注房间里的大象，也就是中国”。据《华尔街日报》报道，X波段雷达圆弧除防御朝鲜威胁外，还将允许美国深入窥视中国。
此外，几位未提及姓名的美国国防部官员称，美国军方将在菲律宾部署第三部X波段雷达，从而使得美国能够准确地跟踪朝鲜和中国大部分地区发射的弹道导弹。【17】
除日本外，美国还邀请了韩国和澳大利亚加入亚洲弹道导弹防御计划。中国官方英文报刊《环球时报》指出，“在所有有核国家中，中国不仅是拥有核武器数量最少的国家，也是唯一一个承诺‘不首先使用核武器’的国家。在亚洲部署导弹防御系统是对中国核政府的不尊重。”
《环球时报》还进一步指出：“日韩澳如果都加入美国防御系统，亚洲很可能出现恶性军备竞赛。中国并不希望看到这类事情的发生，但军备竞赛一旦出现，中国只好应对。美国在给亚洲制造动荡，可能在未来激化更多的冲突，中国应尽其所能防止事态恶化，同时也应做好最坏的打算。”【18】
弹道导弹防御系统鼓励发动首次核攻击
布什政府和奥巴马政府决定先在波兰、捷克共和国和土耳其建立包围俄罗斯的弹道导弹环形防御圈，以防御俄罗斯的洲际弹道导弹。随后，提出了美国的亚洲弹道导弹防御策略。美国著名退役军官曾警告过，针对潜在核对手部署弹道导弹防御系统，无论是针对俄罗斯、中国、朝鲜还是伊朗，从严格的军事战略意义上说，都是疯狂的举动。
哪怕只是拥有一个初步的导弹防御屏障，美国便能向俄罗斯或中国的导弹发射井和潜艇舰队发动第一次导弹攻击，且丝毫不用担心遭到有效反攻，因为俄罗斯或中国所剩无几的核导弹根本无法做出具有足够破坏力的回应。
冷战期间，由于华约和北约拥有相互毁灭的能力，双方进入了军事战略家所称的恐核制衡状态，即确保相互毁灭以达到相互制约(MAD)。尽管局势令人害怕，但奇怪的是，当时的情况却比如今美国单方寻求核主导地位更加稳定。恐核制衡是基于双方核能力相当、开战任何一方都没有胜算的前景下形成的，也因此，核战争在当时是无法想象的。
而今，美国在欧洲建立针对俄罗斯的弹道导弹防御系统，在亚洲建立针对中国的弹道导弹防御系统，是在寻求发动核战争的可能性。这简直是疯了。。
第一个拥有弹道导弹防御屏障(BMD)的国家实际上便拥有了发动第一次攻击的能力，从而使得弹道导弹防御屏障不再是防御性的，而是极具攻击性。罗伯特•鲍曼中校在里根总统时期担任美国空军导弹防御计划负责人，他最近将导弹防御系统称为“发动首次攻击所缺少的一环。”【19】BMD为发动首次核攻击提供了动机，这在以往是难以想象的，因为发动攻击的国家无法确定本国是否会遭到核放射性的摧毁，成为一片废墟。在军事意义上，弹道导弹防御系统其实是进攻性的，与其名称中的“防御”刚好相反，它的正确命名应该是“弹道导弹攻击系统”。
鲍曼进一步提到：
“在里根和老布什任内，这个机构是战略防御倡议局(SDIO);在克林顿任内，变成了弹道导弹防御局。现在小布什把这个机构重新命名为导弹防御局 (MDA)，给了它免于监督的自由，在以前只有“黑计划”(即不公开的军事计划，主要指秘密武器装备研制计划)才有这个权利。如果国会不迅速采取行动，这个新的独立机构可能会实质性地获得无限制的预算，并把这些钱花在不受公众和国会监督的武器上，在这些武器部署到空间之前我们根本不知道都是些什么东西。理论上，届时空间战士将统治世界，能够在不进行预先警告的情况下摧毁地球上的任何目标。”【20】
美国在亚洲进行弹道导弹防御系统的重大部署，很有可能是中共十八大会议突然决定推迟到美国大选结束后的主要原因，以此中国便可明确其将面临的是罗姆尼总统还是奥巴马总统。在奥巴马首次公开其“亚洲轴心”和“奥巴马主义”以来的几个月里，美国所做出的军事决定正是导致中国越来越担心奥巴马“战略轴心”的原因所在。
注：
[1] Jonathan Marcus, China extending military reach, 14 June 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13761711
[2] Winslow Wheeler, The Military Imbalance: How The US Outspends the World, March 16, 2012, accessed in http://www.iiss.org/publications/military-balance/the-military-balance-2012/press-statement/figure-comparative-defence-statistics/.
[3] Ibid.
[4] F. William Engdahl, Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order, 2010, edition.engdahl,Wiesbaden.
[5] President Barack Obama, Remarks By President Obama to the Australian Parliament, November 17, 2011, accessed in http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarks-president-obama-australian-parliament.
[6] Ibid.
[7]Brian Spegele et al, US Missile Shield Plan Seen Stoking China Fears, The Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2012, accessed in http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444082904577609054116070694.html.
[8] Kazunori Takada, Japanese firms shut China plants, US urges calm in islands row, Reuters, September 17, 2012, accessed in http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/17/uk-china-japan-idUSLNE88G01A20120917.
[9] Thom Shanker and Ian Johnson, US Accord With Japan Over Missile Defense Draws Criticism in China, The New York Times, September 17, 2012, accessed in http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/world/asia/u-s-and-japan-agree-on-missile-defense-system.html?pagewanted=all
[10] Chris Carroll, US, Japan Announce Expanded Missile Defense System, September 17, 2012, Stars and Stripes, accessed in http://www.military.com/daily-news/2012/09/17/us-japan-announce-expanded-missile-defense-system.html
[11] Masako Toki, Missile defense in Japan, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 16 January 2009, accessed in http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/missile-defense-japan
[12] RT, Shield revealed US spreads missile defenses East, Russia Today, 24 August, 2012, accessed in http://rt.com/news/us-missile-defense-asia-432/.
[13] Brian Spegele, et al, US Missile Shield Plan Seen Stoking China Fears, Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2012, accessed in http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444082904577609054116070694.html
[14] Ibid.
[15] Trefor Moss, Asia’s New Arms Race: Missiles, Missile Defenses, August 27, 2012, accessed in http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2012/08/27/asias-new-arms-race-missiles-missile-defenses/.
[16] RT, op. cit.
[17] Brian Spegele, op. cit.
[18] Global Times, US missile shield fosters Asian arms race, Beijing, Global Times, March 29, 2012, accessed in http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/702623/US-missile-shield-fosters-Asian-arms-race.aspx.
[19] F. William Engdahl, Full Spectrum Dominance: Totalitarian Democracy in the New World Order, edition.engdahl,Wiesbaden, 2009, p. 162.
[20] Ibid., p. 161.
原文链接：http://www.globalresearch.ca/no-wonder-china-is-nervous-as-obama-pivots/5312523
附原文：
China a Military Threat? No Wonder China is Nervous as Obama Pivots
By F. William Engdahl
Global Research, November 21, 2012
Region: Asia
Theme: Militarization and WMD
To read the mainstream Western media, one would conclude that China has become an economic giant now intent on flexing its military muscle and making a massive arms buildup to do so. China’s designated new President, Xi Jinping, has just won both the top Communist party post from predecessor Hu Jintao as well as the head of the powerful Central Military Commission, giving Xi a full takeover of party and armed forces.
A recent BBC analysis, in an article titled “China extending military reach,” is typical of Western media coverage of China’s military program: “China‘s first aircraft carrier will begin sea trials later this year. Late last year, the first pictures were leaked of the prototype of Beijing‘s new “stealth” fighter. And US military experts believe that China has begun to deploy the world’s first long-range ballistic missile capable of hitting a moving ship at sea.“ [1]
In Japan, nationalist politicians like politically ambitious Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara and Toru Hashimoto, the mayor of Osaka, are gaining popularity with anti-China rhetoric and by claiming Japan must develop capacities to oppose Chinese military ascendency. In May the authoritative New York Times ran an alarming story to the effect that China announced a “double-digit increase” in military spending. In the actual text of the article they report an 11% increase over the previous budget, far less than even the rate of inflation.
However, when we examine in detail the actual redeployment and military moves of US Armed Forces in the Asia region following President Obama’s announcement of a new “Asia Pivot” refocus of US military capacities from Western Europe to the Asia region, it becomes clear China is re-acting, in order to attempt to deal with quite real threats to its future sovereignty rather than acting in an aggressive posture.
The mere fact that a standing President, Obama, during nationally televised Presidential debates labeled China as an “adversary” is indicative of the US military posture change. The depth and nature of the US pivot to China is crystal clear when one takes a closer look at the recent developments in an Asian US Missile Defense deployment, clearly aimed at China and no other.
China officially spent barely 10% of what the US does on its defense, some $90 billion, or if certain defense-related arms import and other costs are included, perhaps $111 billion a year. Even if the Chinese authorities do not publish complete data on such sensitive areas, it’s clear China spends a mere fraction of the USA and is starting from a military-technology base far behind the USA.
The US defense budget is not just by far the world’s largest. It dominates everyone else, completely independent of any perceived threat. In the nineteenth century, the British Royal Navy built the size of its fleet according to the fleets of Britain’s two most powerful potential enemies; America’s defense budget strategists declare it will be “doomsday” if the United States builds its navy to anything less than five times that of China and Russia combined.[2]
If we include the spending by Russia, China’s strongest ally within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, their combined total annual defense spending is barely $142 billion. The world’s ten top defense spending nations in addition to the USA as largest, and China as second largest, include the UK, France, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Indiaand Brazil. In 2011 the military spending of the United States totaled a staggering 46% of total spending by the world’s 171 governments and territories, almost half the entire world. [3]
Clearly, for all its rhetoric about peace-keeping missions and “democracy” promotion, the Pentagon is pursuing what its planners refer to as “Full Spectrum Dominance,” the total control of all global air, land, ocean, space, outer-space and now cyberspace.[4] It is clearly determined to use its military might to secure global domination or hegemony. No other interpretation is possible.
China today, because of its dynamic economic growth and its determination to pursue sovereign Chinese national interests, merely because China exists, is becoming the Pentagon new “enemy image,” or adversary, now replacing the no longer useful “enemy image” of Islam used after September 2001 by the Bush-Cheney Administration to justify the Pentagon’s global power pursuit.
After almost two decades of neglect of its interests in East Asia, in 2011, the Obama Administration announced that the US would make “a strategic pivot” in its foreign policy to focus its military and political attention on the Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, that is, China.
‘Obama Doctrine’ and Asian BMD
To date the heart of the initial stages of the China Pivot involve building a massive anti-Ballistic Missile Defense ring around Chinato neutralize China’s nuclear strike potential. During the final months of 2011 the Obama Administration clearly defined a new public military threat doctrine for US military readiness in the wake of the US military failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. During a Presidential trip to the Far East, while in Australia, the US President unveiled what is being termed the Obama Doctrine.[5]
The following sections from Obama’s speech in Australia are worth citing in detail:
With most of the world’s nuclear power and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation…As President, I have, therefore, made a deliberate and strategic decision — …the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future…I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority… We will preserve our unique ability to project power and deter threats to peace…The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay. Indeed, we are already modernizing America’s defense posture across the Asia Pacific. ..We see our new posture here in Australia…I believe we can address shared challenges, such as proliferation and maritime security, including cooperation in the South China Sea.[6]
On August 24, 2012the New York Wall Street Journal reported that the Obama Administration as part of its newly-announced policy of China Pivot, will expand its missile-defense shield, Ballistic Missile Defense or BMD as it is known in the military, in the Asia-Pacific region. [7]
The official reason given by the Pentagon for its new BMD deployment to the Asian theater is to protect Japan, South Korea and other US allied countries in the region against a North Korean nuclear missile attack. That argument doesn’t stand close scrutiny.
In reality, according to numerous reports, Washington has decided to invest in a major Ballistic Missile Defense network using Japan, South Korea and Australia. The real target of the BMD system is not North Korea, but rather the Peoples’ Republic of China, the only power in the region possessing even a potential nuclear threat with serious long-range delivery capabilities. It is part of the new Pentagon strategy of imposing full control over the future development of China.
The Washington BMD offensive has to be viewed as well in the light of the well-timed Japanese government decision to deliberately provoke tension with China over the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, a region believed to be vastly rich in natural gas reserves.[8]
Part III: Japan Missile Defense Key
In September 2012, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta announced that the United Statesand Japan had reached a major agreement to deploy a second major advanced missile-defense radar on Japanese territory.[9] In his announcement Panetta declared, “The purpose of this is to enhance our ability to defend Japan. It’s also designed to help forward-deployed US forces and it also will be effective in protecting the US homeland from the North Korean ballistic missile threat.”[10] A glance at the map shows the nuclear holes in Panetta’s statement. Chinese missile sites are just across the Korean border, well in range of the US-Japan new BMD installation.
The Washington decision to place advanced BMD infrastructure in Japan was made long ago as part of a US strategy of global military dominance. The BMD cooperation with Japan began in earnest on December 19, 2003, when the Japanese government issued the cabinet decision “On Introduction of Ballistic Missile Defense System and Other Measures.” Ever since, establishing a robust missile defense system has been a Japan national security priority.
Under the current Japanese government’s interpretation of Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution, Japan’s participation in collective self-defense is prohibited, as is using missile defense capabilities to defend a third country–even an ally such as the United States. Shinzo Abe, head of the Liberal Democratic Party, almost certain to become Prime Minister after the December 16 Lower House elections, is a strong advocate of BMD and of changing Article 9. That means we can expect a major shift to a more militant anti-China military posture from Tokyo. [11]
According to US military press accounts, the most important feature of the new Japanese BMD project will be installation of a powerful early-warning radar, ‘X-band’, made by Raytheon Co. It’s “a large, phased-array fire control sensor, featuring precision discrimination and interceptor support,” designed to counter threats from ‘rogue states.’ It will be installed on an unnamed southern Japanese island.[12]
Japan’s defense minister Satoshi Morimoto confirmed that Tokyo and Washington “have had various discussions over missile defenses, including how to deploy the US’s X-Band radar system.” [13] Japan already hosts one X-Band radar in the northern prefecture of Aomori, since 2006. It’s heavily opposed by local residents who fear, not without good reason, that the presence of the radar makes them a target for potential enemy attacks.[14]
BMD across Asia
The US move to prioritize its BMD installation in Asia involves not only Japan. Washington is also helping India improve its new missile defense system. The Indians want to build a multi-layer missile defense network with US help. Publicly India’s government cites Pakistan as the reason. Privately, it’s China. India test-fired its Agni-V intermediate range ballistic missile earlier this year and the Indian press openly cited the system’s ability to strike anywhere in China as the most important feature.[15]
According to Steven Hildreth, a missile-defense expert with the Washington Congressional Research Service, the USA is “laying the foundations” for a region-wide missile defense system that would consist of US ballistic missile defenses combined with those of regional powers, particularly Japan, South Korea and Australia. Although supposedly aimed at containing threats from North Korea, Hildreth also stated, “the reality is that we’re also looking longer term at the elephant in the room, which is China.” According to a report in the Wall Street Journal the X-band arc would allow the US to ‘peer deeper’ into China, in addition to North Korea. [16]
As well, there are reports from unnamed US Defense Department officials that a third X-Band radar would be positioned in the Philippines, allowing the Pentagon to accurately track ballistic missiles launched from North Korea but also from large parts of China.[17]
In addition to Japan, Washington has invited South Korea and Australia to join the Asian BMD program. The official Chinese English language daily, Global Times, pointed out, “Among the nuclear powers, China has the smallest number of nuclear weapons. It is also the only country to make a ‘no first use’ commitment. Installing a missile defense system in Asia disrespects China’s nuclear policy.”
The Global Times article notes further, “If Japan, South Korea and Australia join the system, a vicious arms race in Asia may follow. It is not what China wants to see, but it will have to deal with it if the arms race happens. The US is creating waves in Asia. The region may see more conflicts intensify in the future. China should make utmost efforts to prevent it, but prepare for the worst.” [18]
Part V: BMD encourages Nuclear First Strike
The US BMD strategy in Asia follows a decision by the Bush and Obama Administrations to first deploy BMD in a ring surrounding Russia with installations in Poland, the Czech Republic andTurkey, aimed at Russia’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missile arsenal. As prominent retired US military officers have warned, deploying Ballistic Missile Defense against a potential nuclear opponent, whether Russia or China or North Korea or Iran is madness in strict military strategy terms.
With even a primitive missile defense shield, the US could launch a first strike attack against Russian or Chinese missile silos and submarine fleets with less fear of effective retaliation; the few remaining Russian or Chinese nuclear missiles would be unable to launch a response sufficiently destructive.
During the Cold War, the ability of the Warsaw Pact and NATO to mutually annihilate one another had led to a nuclear stalemate dubbed by military strategists, MAD—Mutually Assured Destruction. It was scary but, in a bizarre sense, more stable than what would come with a unilateral US pursuit of nuclear primacy. MAD was based on the prospect of mutual nuclear annihilation with no decisive advantage for either side; it led to a world in which nuclear war had been ‘unthinkable.’
Now the US, with BMD in Europe against Russia and in Asia against China, is pursuing the possibility of nuclear war as ‘thinkable.’ That is really and truly ‘mad.’
The first nation with a ballistic missile ‘defense’ shield (BMD) would de facto have ‘first strike ability,’ making BMD not defensive but offensive in the extreme. Lt. Colonel Robert Bowman, Director of the US Air Force Missile Defense Program during the Reagan era, recently called missile defense, “the missing link to a First Strike.” [19] BMD gives an incentive to make a first nuclear strike, something never before imaginable owing to the lack of certainty one’s nation would not become nuclear radioactive rubble. In military terms, BMD is offensive, not defensive contrary to the name, and should properly be named Ballistic Missile Offense.
Bowman further notes:
Under Reagan and Bush I, it was called the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO). Under President Clinton, it became the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO). Now Bush II made it the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and has given it the freedom from oversight and audit previously enjoyed only by the black or top secret programs. If Congress doesn’t act soon, this new independent agency may take their essentially unlimited budget and spend it outside of public and Congressional scrutiny on weapons that we won’t know anything about until they’re in space. In theory, then, the space warriors would rule the world, able to destroy any target on earth without warning. Will these new super weapons bring the American people security? Hardly. [20]
Washington’s major deployment of BMD across Asia is a major reason likely for the sudden decision to delay the 18th Party Congress until after the US elections to see whether China faced a President Romney or President Obama. What has materialized in terms of US military decisions in the few months since Obama first proclaimed his Asia Pivot and Obama Doctrine makes clear why China is increasingly nervous about Obama ‘pivots.’
F. William Engdahl is economist and geopolitical analyst. More about his various books and articles can be found on www.williamengdahl.com
(《环球视野globalview.cn》第509期)